Britain’s beleaguered prime minister Boris Johnson has attempted to seize the initiative with a huge mobilisation of resources to give — or at least offer — booster jabs to all over-18s by the end of December. The move is the right one; it is better to act decisively against a virus surge and then ease measures if warranted than to be too slow, which — as the UK knows from bitter experience — can cost thousands more lives. Yet further social distancing measures are still likely to be required. And the government’s capacity to act is constrained by its current political turmoil.
The booster drive will, to be sure, impose great strain on an exhausted NHS. It will unfortunately prolong the suffering of some by requiring cancellation of certain non-urgent operations. It is very much a stretch target, needing many more people to be jabbed daily than in the single best day of the vaccination programme to date.
While cases of the Omicron variant are doubling every two or three days — putting it on course to overtake Delta as the dominant strain as early as this week — and the UK’s first Omicron death was announced on Monday, the true extent of the risk remains unclear. The health secretary has said Omicron cases could reach a million a day by the end of December without action, but modellers overestimated the build-up of the Delta strain in the summer.
Yet it is prudent to accelerate the existing booster programme, given evidence that two jabs — especially of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine — now provide limited protection against the new strain but that adding a third provides a big lift. If the government can get anywhere near its target, the risk of the health service being overwhelmed will be much less; postponing non-urgent operations now can help to ensure both these and urgent ones can continue to go ahead later. The need for very restrictive measures or another full lockdown, with all the harm these entail, may be significantly reduced.
It is unlikely, however, that further restrictions can be avoided completely, and these are now politically fraught. The “Plan B” measures for England announced last week are flawed; people are advised to work from home but can go to parties or to the pub without constraints. There are no forced closures, but no support for businesses whose trade will still be affected. Vaccine passes are demanded for nightclubs and large venues, but not the restaurants, pubs and cafés where many people congregate most often — and the requirement is only two doses. Until enough people are boosted to allow that to be the benchmark, a negative test result may be more reliable, but lateral flow tests are running short.
With some Tory MPs convinced the prime minister announced these measures only to distract from the scandal over Downing Street parties allegedly held during lockdown a year ago, Johnson faces the biggest backbench rebellion of his premiership so far in votes to enact them on Tuesday. He will have to rely on Labour support this time, but will be wary of having to do so again if stricter “Plan C” measures are needed, even just to close loopholes in Plan B. England’s antivirus efforts risk being held hostage by 60-odd libertarian Tories whose views are out of kilter with much of the population.
Even if Johnson can ride out any setback in Thursday’s North Shropshire by-election, he must quickly hunt for ways to restore trust in his integrity and authority. A reboot of the Downing Street operation is required to bestow a patina of competence. These are vital not just to the prime minister’s own political fortunes, but to ensure the country can effectively counter what may be the biggest Covid wave so far.
Boosters are only part of the UK’s answer to Omicron
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