It was busy this weekend in central London.
Just how busy depends very much on your point of view. For this festive drinker, the restaurants, bars and pubs felt a little uncomfortable — not against the four-deep at the bar standards of Decembers past of course, but against the backdrop of mounting concern about the Omicron variant and the memory of the spaced-out seating and QR-code menus from previous times that Covid-19 risk was elevated.
For the hospitality industry, though, it wasn’t particularly hectic at all — at least not for the festive period that many businesses rely on to sustain them through the quieter months.
Card spending on social activities was about 95 per cent of February 2020 levels early in December, according to Office for National Statistics data, close to the best it’s been since the pandemic hit. But that figure, which isn’t seasonally adjusted, should be much higher in the booze-soaked run-up to Christmas than in the dark days of February.
And the reality is that busyness has almost certainly dropped off in the past two weeks. After the initial concerns emerged about Omicron, the UK sector experienced a 15 per cent cancellation rate and a similar fall in walk-in trade, according to industry body UKHospitality. And that was before the latest ‘Plan B’ restrictions were proposed, the effects of which aren’t yet clear.
The hospitality sector, through various trade bodies, has so far rejected so-called vaccine passports as unnecessary, unhelpful or both. With infections soaring and the urge to socialise again waning regardless of what the restrictions might be, it should embrace the idea as a chance to boost customer confidence — and stay open.
The phrase “vaccine passports” isn’t terribly constructive. Nor is it accurate, given the proposed option to show a recent negative test (something that may be more useful given what we know about Omicron’s ability to circumnavigate a double dose of vaccine).
Whatever you call them, the evidence suggests that a Covid pass to access hospitality or large event venues can be moderately useful in restricting the spread of infection.
Of course, no system is foolproof (and most can be cheated). But modelling by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change suggested that a certification system could have cut infections and deaths by a quarter to a third, after the lifting of curbs in July.
For those who are spreadsheet-averse, the government’s rather limited trials of testing before large events reported low infection numbers and, importantly, widespread public acceptance of the programme. Government analysis reported by Politico suggested certification for mass events could reduce transmission there by 40-45 per cent.
Business concerns about the operability of passes and checks must surely be tempered by the fact that many other countries have managed this. Restaurateurs can join with parliament’s libertarians in insisting that passes are limited, both in scope and time. But the cinemas, bars, restaurants and sports stadiums of France have coped with its pass sanitaire since July, with a positive uptick in vaccination rates as a result. Restaurants in US cities such as New York and New Orleans are checking customers’ vaccination status. Denmark has introduced a coronapas, dropped it and reinstated it again.
This isn’t without cost. UKHospitality points to a hit to revenues of 15 to 20 per cent for businesses in Scotland and Wales after passes were introduced there — though subsequent events have made it hard to determine any boost to trade from increased confidence, as was reported in Europe. Some businesses may find that lower levels of staff illness and reduced isolation requirements are a modest benefit.
The industry can reasonably ask for support in covering the costs of implementing what is a public health measure, while lobbying for policies to ensure the positive knock-on effect actually materialises. The reduced rate of VAT for the sector is due to end in April, at a time when higher business and payroll taxes also kick in.
Ultimately, a Covid pass is a much lower cost measure than distancing requirements (or indeed closure), which suddenly seem possible again, if only to buy time while more jabs and boosters take effect. Hospitality (with travel) now knows that it will bear the brunt of restrictions if infection numbers explode higher. Embracing a Covid pass could help keep London’s streets busy.
helen.thomas@ft.com
@helentbiz
It’s time for hospitality to embrace a Covid pass
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