Boris Johnson is braced for a knife edge parliamentary by-election on Thursday that will increase the pressure on his premiership should the Conservatives lose to the Liberal Democrats.
He is already reeling from his biggest Tory rebellion since becoming prime minister after 101 Conservative MPs on Tuesday voted against the government’s plan for Covid-19 vaccine passports for large events.
Although most of the rebel Tories insisted the vote was purely about their objections to new coronavirus restrictions for England amid the fast spreading Omicron variant, Johnson’s authority has been significantly damaged.
As well as the by-election in North Shropshire, Johnson is also facing pressure about Downing Street parties held last year when London was under stringent Covid-19 restrictions, including one where he hosted a quiz night.
Johnson said at a Downing Street press conference on Wednesday: “I do understand people’s feelings on principle about what they see as infringement of liberty.”
But he added he would not change his policy approach, which he suggested focused on priorities “the public focused on”.
One influential minister said Johnson “should not feel safe in the slightest” after almost half of his backbench MPs turned against him. “He should worry that something is going quite fundamentally wrong and unless that is corrected pronto, all the good will is used up,” he added.
Johnson’s immediate focus will be on the North Shropshire by-election, with the result due early on Friday morning, and where the Tories are defending a 22,949 majority following the resignation of disgraced ex-minister Owen Paterson.
22,949 was the Tory majority in North Shropshire at the 2019 General Election
The Liberal Democrats, who came third in the seat at the 2019 general election, are hopeful of taking what is supposed to be an ultra safe Conservative constituency.
Ed Davey, party leader, claimed the race was “neck and neck” and “the momentum is now with the Liberal Democrats”. Bookmakers concur with him.
Senior Tories are expecting a close result. One senior party official praised Conservative candidate Neil Shastri-Hurst, but said: “Could we have a worse backdrop for the poor guy?”
One Tory MP who has campaigned in North Shropshire added: “It’s going to be tight but I think we’ll just take it. And if we do hold it, Boris can breathe a little easier.” But another senior Conservative said: “We are going to lose.”
Much will depend on whether Tory voters choose to stay at home, or some switch their allegiance to the Lib Dems.
One senior Lib Dem official said “a lot rests on the soft Tories who have gone off their party and Boris Johnson”, adding the fact their party even had a chance “shows the trouble the Conservatives are in”.
Away from the by-election, Johnson is being urged to reboot his Downing Street operation and improve relations with his MPs following Tuesday’s rebellion in the House of Commons.
A delegation from the rightwing 92 Group of Conservative MPs on Wednesday told Johnson to get a grip of his Number 10 team. One former minister said: “He needs to get rid of the sixth formers who seem to be running things and get someone heavyweight in to help him. Boris needs to be managed.”
Senior Conservatives are also urging Johnson to clear out the Tory whips’ office: the members of the government who look after its business in the Commons.
“The whips office is weak,” said one former minister. “Some MPs weren’t phoned by their whip ahead of the vote. It’s no wonder they didn’t have a clue what was going on.”
Dozens of Conservative MPs were not contacted by the whips, said people briefed on the situation, particularly those first elected in 2019. One described the operation as “totally cumbersome and leaden”, claiming 20 MPs were “totally missed”.
The fragility of Johnson’s position was highlighted by how every officer on the influential 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs voted against the government on vaccine passports.
Letters of no confidence in the prime minister are believed to have been handed to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee, but the total is thought to be significantly short of the 54 required to trigger a vote in Johnson’s position. If he lost such a vote, there would be a Conservative party leadership contest.
One Conservative MP said: “Some letters have gone in already and I’m sure more will go in if we don’t win the by-election. But it’s not too late for him to turn things around.”
Most Tory MPs appeared to rally around Johnson by packing the benches behind him at prime minister’s questions in the Commons on Wednesday.
Johnson’s allies hope that pressure on his leadership will dissipate as MPs disperse around the country for their Christmas break on Thursday, making it harder for them to co-ordinate any move against the prime minister.
Opinions are split at Westminster about the seriousness of the Conservative rebellion against Johnson. One government member said he was “in real trouble”, adding the mood was “very mutinous” and “much worse than Number 10 realises”.
Most MPs think his future could be determined by whether he has to recall the Commons at Christmas to approve further coronavirus restrictions, which would be deeply unpopular with many backbench Tories and therefore likely to further destabilise Johnson.
“The boss has got a problem hasn’t he?” said one senior Tory. “How much trouble he is in depends on what happens next, whether we end up back here next week or in January being asked to vote for more restrictions.”
Johnson braces for closely fought parliamentary by-election
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