There is one line in your editorial on Ethiopia (FT View, December 22) that should put all Africa watchers on high alert: “When the fighting does eventually end, it may be difficult to put Ethiopia back together again”. History shows us just how difficult that might be as the country has collapsed before with devastating long-term consequences.
The first collapse of the centralised state, beginning in the seventh century, resulted in Ethiopia’s “Dark Ages” lasting until the restoration of so-called Solomonic rule and central control in 1270. The most recent collapse, in 1769, ushered in the Zemene Mesafint, the “Age of the Princes”, when regional lords fought for control of the centre to become Negus Negaste or King of Kings (Emperor), a chaotic period lasting until reunification and the founding of modern Ethiopia by Emperor Tewodros in 1855. Since then successive emperors, juntas and prime ministers have held the country together (with the exception of breakaway Eritrea) by force, which current leader Abiy Ahmed is now attempting.
In a recent essay in Foreign Affairs magazine, “Can Ethiopia survive?”, Nic Cheeseman and Yohannes Woldemariam write “whichever way the current conflict plays out . . . the survival of the Ethiopian state will require the country’s leaders to devise a new vision for the country — one they currently seem incapable of delivering”.
The three post-imperial “visions” for Ethiopia include a Marxist state (1974-1991), a federal republic divided into nine ethnic states (1994-2018) and now, under Abiy, a united, capitalist Ethiopia. None of these have healed the country’s ancient divisions nor fulfilled its huge potential.
To avoid another Zemene Mesafint, the only realistic vision for holding such a vast, diverse, ecologically fragile and climate vulnerable territory together must be based not on history, ideology or ethnicity but on geography where people unite around nature.
Kenyans understand this. Their decentralising landmark 2010 constitution divides Kenya into 47 counties with clearly defined geographical boundaries aimed at fostering “participatory governance, inclusive and sustainable development, human rights and the rule of law”. Such a “geo-constitution” could work well in Ethiopia by using the country’s 12 major river basins as geographical units for administration, management and planning. Anything else risks prolonging the current tragedy for Ethiopia and for the whole of Africa.
Michael Street
Noto, Sicily, Italy
Letter: Ethiopia needs a new model to heal its ancient divisions
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