David Cameron displays a not insignificant resentment towards an old school chum. He noted last week that Boris Johnson can “get away with things that mere mortals can’t”. The former British prime minister has previously put his angst in more colourful terms: “The thing about the greased piglet is that he manages to slip through other people’s hands.”
Such frustration reflects the failures of Cameron’s own political career, but it is also shared by Johnson’s enemies, who struggle to comprehend how his mishaps and missteps have failed to knock his standing. Especially during the pandemic, opposition strategists are bemused as to why his mistakes have gone unpunished by the general public. “His decisions led to more people dying and yet people did not seem to care,” one notes.
Johnson’s decision not to follow the path of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland with further Covid-19 restrictions before the new year is a huge gamble. It may be based on data — ministers insist the hospitalisation rates in England do not justify additional measures — or it may be expediency, with Tory MPs opposed to such restrictions. But if it pays off, it may all be down to luck, one of the most underestimated characteristics of politics.
Truisms about known and unknown unknowns have littered how leaders justify their time in office — think of Harold Macmillan’s statement that “events, dear boy” were the most difficult part of his premiership, or the remark attributed to Harold Wilson that “in politics a week is a very long time”. The most optimistic leaders hope to shape events, yet the most realistic ones know that much is simply out of their control.
This year is set to be dominated by circumstances out of Johnson’s control. First is Covid: before the emergence of Omicron, ministers were confident they had the pandemic licked. The UK’s booster programme has been a triumph, but officials fear what comes next. “We were lucky Omicron wasn’t more deadly. If it had been, we would really be in the shit,” one says. With future variants, Johnson can only control so much.
The economy brings another variable, particularly with inflation rising to 5.1 per cent and predicted to hit 6 per cent. A world of potential sustained high inflation is one that millennials have never experienced. Again, Johnson has some levers to pull, but with limits. A ‘cost of living’ crisis with limited policy options is No10’s chief fear at present.
The third major stumbling block comes in the form of a duo of inquiries. Sue Gray, one of Whitehall’s most feared mandarins, is examining a string of parties that allegedly broke Covid restrictions. The investigation has been botched once, but Gray will have no qualms about implicating Johnson if she deems it necessary. Her findings are outside of his control.
The other is an investigation by Lord Christopher Geidt, who oversees ministerial standards, into whether the prime minister gave a misleading account of a loan to refurbish his Downing Street residence. Geidt is expected to strongly criticise Johnson but conclude he did not actively decisive or mislead.
Meanwhile the Labour party enters 2022 in possibly its strongest polling position in years, thanks to fortuitous circumstances and a refreshed team of shadow ministers. Its biggest challenge remains projecting more charisma on to the dry persona of party leader Sir Keir Starmer. As things stand, whether or not Starmer has a real chance to oust the Tories depends on events outside of his control.
There is a chance that all these unknowns will fall in Johnson’s favour and present him another opportunity to rebound: perhaps Omicron will prove to be the last Covid variant before the virus becomes endemic; maybe inflation will rapidly fall back; it is possible that the inquiries will not directly tarnish his reputation and that Starmer will struggle to regain a purpose for Labour.
Johnson’s ability to regain his standing is well versed. His supporters point to how his London mayoralty was rebooted after a string of scandals in 2008, when a team of experienced apparatchiks were hired to bring discipline and drive to City Hall. Will he attempt the same tricks?
Yet even for a prime minister his cabinet colleagues call a “lucky general”, this would be an extreme run of good fortune. One Tory party insider sums up the stark situation: either “the greased piglet may slip through again. Or everything falls apart incredibly rapidly”.
If 2021 was a hectic year, brace yourselves for the uncertain months ahead.
This may be the year Boris Johnson’s luck runs out
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